POPULATION THEORIES

              Phani Siddha

@ Super Sixty IAS Academy

                   Hyd

DEMOGRAPHY

THEORIES; MALTHUSIAN,

The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus FRS (13 or 14 February 1766 – 23 or 29 December 1834) was an English scholar, influential in political economy and demography. Malthus popularized the economic theory of rent.

Malthus has become widely known for his theories about population and its increase or decrease in response to various factors. The six editions of his An Essay on the Principle of Population, published from 1798 to 1826, observed that sooner or later population gets checked by famine and disease. He wrote in opposition to the popular view in 18th-century Europe that saw society as improving and in principle as perfectible. William Godwin and the Marquis de Condorcet, for example, believed in the possibility of almost limitless improvement of society. In a more complex way so did Jean-Jacques Rousseau, whose notions centered on the goodness of man and the liberty of citizens bound only by the social contract—a form of popular sovereignty.

Malthus thought that the dangers of population growth would preclude endless progress towards a utopian society: "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man".  As an Anglican clergyman, Malthus saw this situation as divinely imposed to teach virtuous behaviour. Believing that one could not change human nature, Malthus wrote:

Must it not then be acknowledged by an attentive examiner of the histories of mankind, that in every age and in every State in which man has existed, or does now exist

That the increase of population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence,

That population does invariably increase when the means of subsistence increase, and,

That the superior power of population is repressed, and the actual population kept equal to the means of subsistence, by misery and vice

According to Malthusian theory of population, population increases in a geometrical ratio, whereas food supply increases in an arithmetic ratio. 

This disharmony would lead to widespread poverty and starvation, which would only be checked by natural occurrences such as disease, high infant mortality, famine, war or moral restraint.

 His main contribution is in the agricultural sector. According to this theory there are two steps to control the population: preventative and positive checks.

Preventative Checks means control in birth rate, and uses of different methods to control birth like contraception, abstention, delayed marriage; and Positive Checks means natural calamities, war, disease etc.

His theory was considered wrong because Malthus only considered two factors when he established his basic graph: food supply and population growth. Other factors such as improvements in technology proved him wrong.

He was right at his time but development made him wrong. If it wasn't for outside influences on population growth and food supply, his mathematical reasoning which proved his theory and was right.

DTT OF WARREN THOMPSON; APPLICATION TO TODAY’S WORLD 

Demographic Transition Theory

A diagram of the demographic transition model, including stage 5 See on Internet

The demographic transition model (DT) is the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.

The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973). 

Thompson observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the previous 200 years. Most developed countries are in stage 3 or 4 of the model; the majority of developing countries have reached stage 2 or stage 3. The major (relative) exceptions are some poor countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and someMiddle Eastern countries, which are poor or affected by government policy or civil strife, notably Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Yemen andAfghanistan.

Although this model predicts ever decreasing fertility rates, recent data show that beyond a certain level of development fertility rates increase again.

A correlation matching the demographic transition has been established; it's not certain whether industrialization and higher incomes lead to lower population or if it is lower populations that lead to industrialization and higher incomes.

In countries that are now developed this demographic transition began in the 18th century and continues today. In less developed countries, this demographic transition started later and is still at an earlier stage.

CENSUS RELATED DISCUSSIONS

DISCUSSION ON GENDER RATIO; 940/1000 ; 914/1000 FOR CHILDREN

LITERACY;  74% OVERALL; 82% FOR MEN AND 65% FOR WOMEN

URBANISATION, 32% URBAN Vs 68% RURAL

REASONS; MIGRATION AND ITS CAUSES

AND EFFECTS, FUTURE ADMINISTRATIVE STEPS;

NEW DEVELOPMENTS ; BIOMETRIC SYSTEMS, 
AADHAR DATA TO BE MERGED INTO A NEW ELECTRONIC CHIP.

URBAN AREAS

India

For the Census of India 2011, the definition of urban area is as follows:

1. All places with a municipality, corporation, cantonment board or notified town area committee, etc.
2. All other places which satisfied the following criteria:

1. A minimum population of 5,000;
2. At least 75% of the male main working population engaged in non-agricultural pursuits; and
3. A density of population of at least 400 persons per sq. km.